March 21, 2025

Trading Desk Insights

Risk assets took a hit Friday morning, driven by concerns over trade policies, recession fears, and a dip in large-cap tech stocks. The ongoing uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies has been unsettling markets lately, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointing out that tariffs could “delay” progress in taming inflation.

The first quarter of 2025 has been tough for the crypto market, despite some positive headlines. Bitcoin dropped 10%, marking its worst first-quarter performance since 2020, while Ethereum posted its weakest start to the year since it launched. The market was hoping for a major boost when rumors spread that Trump would speak at the Blockworks DAS conference in NYC yesterday. However, all he did was express general support for crypto, emphasizing stablecoins' role in keeping the U.S. dollar dominant in global trade. While these comments are certainly important for the industry’s future, the lack of concrete policy action has created a more cautious outlook in the short term.

On a different note, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has raised about $711.2 million by selling 8.5 million shares of its 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock, priced at $85 each—far exceeding its initial goal of $500 million. The company plans to use most of these funds to buy more bitcoin, potentially pushing its holdings beyond 500,000 BTC.

The News Room

ECB reiterates need for a digital euro to counter influence of dollar-based stablecoins

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reiterated the need for a digital euro to counter the growing influence of dollar-based stablecoins, which it sees as a potential risk to the euro's role in the global economy. The ECB has expressed concerns about the dominance of U.S.-dollar-pegged stablecoins in European markets, as they could weaken the euro's status in international trade. A digital euro would provide a European alternative to these stablecoins and ensure the euro remains competitive in the evolving financial landscape. The ECB is actively exploring the digital euro project, focusing on its potential to secure the euro's future.

Pumpfun launches its own DEX called PumpSwap amid falling revenue

Pumpfun has launched its decentralized exchange (DEX) called PumpSwap, aiming to diversify its business amid falling revenues. The move comes as the company faces challenges in maintaining profitability, prompting the introduction of a new trading platform. Despite some positive industry headlines, Pumpfun’s overall revenue has been impacted, and the launch of PumpSwap is part of a broader strategy to counterbalance the declining performance. The company’s efforts reflect a trend where crypto firms are seeking new avenues for growth in an evolving and competitive market.

SEC confirms PoW crypto mining exempt from securities law

​The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has clarified that participants in proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency mining, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin miners and mining pools, are not subject to federal securities laws. The SEC's Division of Corporation Finance stated that these activities are focused on network security and transaction validation, and do not involve offering or selling securities. Therefore, miners and mining pools are not required to register their transactions under the Securities Act of 1933.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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