March 26, 2024

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Next FOMC meeting: May 1st 2024

  • Probability of a 25bps ease → 8%
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The News Room

London Stock Exchange to Launch Bitcoin and Ether ETN Market for Professional Investors in May

The London Stock Exchange announced the introduction of a market for Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded notes (ETN), scheduled to launch on May 28, following acceptance of applications from April 8. This new market, pending approval from the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), will be available exclusively to professional investors. The FCA's earlier statement in March expressed openness to Recognized Investment Exchanges' requests for listing ETN market segments, aligning with the UK government's broader initiative to establish the country as a crypto-friendly hub.


FTX Estate Sells Major Stake in AI Firm Anthropic to Investor Consortium for $884 Million

The FTX bankruptcy estate has successfully negotiated a sale of its predominant stake in AI firm Anthropic to a consortium of institutional investors, garnering $884 million in proceeds. The sale's principal participant is ATIC Third International Investment Company, under Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, committing $500 million for a significant share portion. The transaction also sees participation from Jane Street Global Trading, affiliates of Fidelity Investments, and The Ford Foundation. This sale represents a substantial boost for the FTX estate, which aims to fully reimburse the defunct exchange's customers, reflecting positively with a 10% increase in FTX's FTT token value. The original investment in Anthropic, amounting to $500 million in 2021 for an 8% stake, has notably appreciated in value amidst the AI surge led by ChatGPT, contrasting sharply with other asset disposals by FTX, such as the significantly undervalued sale of LedgerX.


Ripple Faces $2 Billion in SEC Fines Amid Ongoing Legal Battle Over XRP Sales

The SEC has proposed a hefty $2 billion in fines and penalties against Ripple Labs Inc., a move disclosed by Ripple's Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, with formal filings to become public soon. This development intensifies the ongoing legal battle initiated in 2020 when the SEC accused Ripple of unlawfully raising $1.3 billion via sales of XRP, claiming it to be an unregistered security. Ripple plans to respond next month, criticizing the SEC's misleading tactics and lack of lawful adherence, as echoed by CEO Brad Garlinghouse's remarks on the SEC's actions against Ripple and other crypto entities. Despite Judge Analisa Torres's mixed verdict last year, acknowledging some of Ripple’s XRP sales did not breach securities laws while others did, Ripple and the SEC's contention continues, with the SEC choosing not to comment on the latest claims.

Trading Desk Insights

In a notable development within the cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin demonstrated a bullish breakout at the beginning of the week, underpinned by solid volume and open interest indicators. As we navigate through the current trading day, Bitcoin is experiencing a moment of hesitation, lingering around the peak levels of yesterday's session, as it searches for its next trajectory. It's within the realm of possibility that we might see a slight retracement towards the $68,000 to $69,000 range; however, the anticipation remains high for a swift return to the annual highs in the near term.

Turning our gaze towards exchange-traded fund (ETF) dynamics, the landscape has finally shifted to welcome a collective net inflow of $15.7 million, with Fidelity spearheading this movement through its substantial inflows amounting to $261.8 million. Meanwhile, the continued outflows from Grayscale, totaling $350.1 million, persist in capturing the market's attention.

The Base blockchain has experienced a remarkable uptick in transactions, largely fueled by a meme coin-driven enthusiasm. The positive market sentiment surrounding this blockchain, especially given its close association with the renowned Coinbase exchange, has significantly elevated its activity levels. Since the commencement of the month, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Base has soared from $450 million to nearly $1 billion, with daily transactions surging to over 1.5 million from an average of less than 500,000 in previous months. This surge in activity has correspondingly increased transaction fees to $1.8 million over the past 24 hours.

In regulatory news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has requested a New York judge to levy a substantial fine of $1.95 billion against the executives of Ripple Labs. This request stems from the case initiated in December 2020, where the SEC accused Ripple Labs of contravening federal securities laws through their sale of XRP tokens to both institutional and individual investors.

In parallel financial markets, U.S. stock futures exhibited an upward trend on Tuesday morning, as market participants endeavor to reignite the rally that propelled equities to record-setting heights. This optimism persists despite underlying concerns that the market's rally may have ventured into overbought territory.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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