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Bitcoin pulled back alongside stocks today after news broke that Trump might impose reciprocal tariffs on up to 25 countries starting April 2. Last night, Trump mentioned that these tariffs will probably be “more lenient than reciprocal,” but there’s still a lot of uncertainty around which countries and sectors will be impacted.
Bitcoin has bounced back by 15% from the recent lows and is now approaching a resistance point near its 50-day moving average. On the 1-hour chart, we’re seeing a potential double top pattern, which could be a bearish signal if prices drop below $86,000. The Nasdaq is also under pressure as both assets have been showing signs of bearish divergence, possibly due to the rising Dollar Index and 10-year yields over the past week.
Solana (SOL) is catching our attention lately with Fidelity filing for a Solana ETF with CBOE, and BlackRock integrating its network into their tokenized money market fund. On top of that, Fidelity is also advancing its own stablecoin project.
Looking at the seasonality trends for both Bitcoin and the stock market, we’re seeing a positive trend heading into Q2. With long-term holders not selling much and tariffs potentially being more relaxed than expected, it could be a good signal for price growth.
All eyes are on the upcoming PCE price index release on Friday, which is the Fed’s key inflation gauge. This data could impact the Fed’s rate decisions and, in turn, market sentiment. Bitcoin’s price could react depending on how this report shapes expectations for future rate hikes.
In other news, GameStop announced it will use corporate cash to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to a 15% jump in the stock during premarket trading.
The News Room
FDIC to remove reputational risk from bank supervision
The FDIC is working on rulemaking to remove "reputational risk" from its bank supervision practices. This follows a similar move by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The change comes amid criticism that reputational risk has been used to pressure banks into denying services to specific customers, especially cryptocurrency firms. Lawmakers, including Rep. French Hill, have voiced support for this move, arguing that the FDIC should focus on its core mission rather than targeting digital asset companies. The FDIC has not made an official announcement but is expected to release new rules soon.
BlackRock’s BUIDL expands to Solana as tokenized money market fund nears $2B
BlackRock's tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, has expanded to the Solana blockchain as it nears a $2 billion market cap. This fund, launched in March 2024 in partnership with Securitize, has gained significant traction, dominating the market for tokenized US Treasurys with a 34% market share. BUIDL, which pays daily dividends to investors, has grown by 240% since its initial $500 million valuation in July 2024. This latest expansion follows a broader multichain strategy, with BUIDL previously launching on Ethereum, Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism, and Polygon. Despite this growth, Ethereum remains the dominant blockchain for tokenized Treasurys.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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