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Ether surged 15% to near $3,500 by Nov. 27, as Ethereum futures open interest hit a record $22 billion, driven by major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX, alongside growing institutional involvement from CME, which holds $2.5 billion. While high leverage signals increased demand, much activity appears tied to neutral or hedging strategies rather than outright bullish sentiment, as two-month futures premiums hover at 17%. Retail traders remain cautious, with funding rates near neutral, though $163 million in leveraged long liquidations highlight risks. The rising open interest points to institutional strategies, reflecting Ether’s evolving market maturity.
US Appeals Court Rules Treasury Exceeded Authority in Tornado Cash Sanctions
A U.S. appeals court ruled that the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) exceeded its authority in sanctioning Tornado Cash, reversing a prior district court decision. The court determined that Tornado Cash’s smart contracts are not "property" and thus cannot be sanctioned under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling, celebrated as a "historic win" for crypto by Coinbase’s legal chief Paul Grewal, comes after six plaintiffs, supported by Coinbase, challenged the sanctions. The decision highlights the limitations of U.S. regulatory authority over decentralized, immutable blockchain protocols.
Vancouver Mayor Unveils Plans to Make City 'Bitcoin-Friendly'
Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim has proposed adding Bitcoin to the city’s balance sheet as part of a strategy to diversify financial resources. During a Nov. 26 city council meeting, Sim announced plans to introduce a motion on Dec. 11 titled “Becoming a Bitcoin-Friendly City.” Bitcoin advocate Jeff Booth stated that the initiative would position Bitcoin as a reserve asset for Vancouver. While Sim campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, including accepting crypto donations, he has made few public comments on the subject since taking office in 2022. The proposal follows similar discussions in the U.S., where some lawmakers are pushing for government-held Bitcoin reserves. It remains uncertain if the motion will garner sufficient support in the city council.
Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin’s bullish drive is taking a breather this week, grappling with softer demand after its near-brush with the elusive $100,000 mark. Adding to the turbulence, whispers of a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December are boosting the yen, a traditional safe-haven asset. Risk-on traders may dismiss this as noise, but the FX backdrop could weigh on broader market sentiment. Meanwhile, BTC’s price action suggests we might see a bounce off the 20-day moving average, a level that has held firm as support during its recent rally.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $95,800 has emerged as a short-term resistance. A decisive push above this level could open the door to a retest of $98,000, but failure to clear it may bring BTC back down to the $91,000-$92,000 zone. For traders, this is a pivotal range to watch as we navigate the next leg of the market’s journey.
On the macro front, traders are also recalibrating expectations for the Federal Reserve. The latest meeting minutes hint at more rate cuts on the horizon, but officials emphasized a “gradual” approach. This measured stance, coupled with the inflationary risks posed by President-elect Trump’s tariff plans, is keeping the markets on edge. While BTC bulls may welcome rate cuts as a tailwind for risk assets, the uncertainty around policy timing and inflation could temper enthusiasm.
BTC’s recent price swings have been nothing short of dramatic. Over the last two days, short-term holders have offloaded nearly $8 billion worth of BTC at a loss—a record-breaking figure in nominal terms. Historically, when this cohort dumps more than $2 billion worth of tokens at a loss, it often signals a local bottom. Could this be a sign that the sell-off is nearing exhaustion?
U.S. stock futures are treading water as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. With the December meeting on the horizon, investors are keenly parsing the data for clues about the Fed’s next move. Any surprises here could ripple across markets, including BTC, as the interplay between inflation expectations and monetary policy continues to unfold.
Crypto Charts
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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