October 16, 2024

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Italy reportedly plans to increase capital gains tax on bitcoin from 26% to 42%

Italy's tax authority plans to raise the capital gains tax on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to 42%, up from the current rate of 26% on gains over €2,000. Vice Economy Minister Maurizio Leo announced the increase as part of the country's 2025 budget plans. The move aims to generate resources for supporting families, youth, and businesses. Italy had previously introduced a 26% tax on crypto capital gains starting in 2023, replacing lower rates applied when crypto was treated as foreign currency. The hike comes amid broader global discussions on increasing taxes on cryptocurrencies.

Trump’s Lead Over Harris Grows to 16% on Polymarket

Former U.S. President Donald Trump's odds of winning the upcoming election have surged to 57.9% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, giving him a 16% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, whose odds stand at 41.8%. As of Tuesday night, the Polymarket bet on the November election has amassed over $1.92 billion in volume. Trump's rise follows his recent lead regain earlier this month, while national polls from FiveThirtyEight still show Harris slightly ahead at 48.5%. Analysts have suggested that Polymarket users may be betting based on probabilities rather than political bias.

Grayscale files to convert mixed crypto fund holding bitcoin, ether, and solana into ETF

Grayscale Investments has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to convert its mixed-crypto fund, which includes bitcoin, ether, solana, XRP, and Avalanche, into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). The Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which currently trades over the counter with $524 million in assets under management, is primarily composed of bitcoin (75%) and Ethereum (19%), along with smaller portions of solana, XRP, and Avalanche. This move follows Grayscale's previous conversions of Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETFs, reflecting the firm's ongoing effort to broaden crypto asset accessibility for investors.

Trading Desk Insights

Bitcoin is currently challenging its previous peak at $68,000, with market sentiment bolstered by increased speculation of a potential victory for Trump in the upcoming election, which has significantly boosted demand for Bitcoin exposure. Over the past week, Bitcoin has consistently outpaced equity markets in performance. A notable surge in activity is evident as Bitcoin’s futures open interest on the CME has soared to a record 172,430 BTC, equivalent to $11.6 billion, indicating robust bullish sentiment among active traders.

The options market is displaying a pronounced bullish tilt for both Bitcoin and the US dollar in the near term. Typically, Bitcoin exhibits an inverse correlation with the dollar index (DXY); however, this relationship might diverge as we approach the U.S. elections, according to current options market trends.

Bitcoin's market dominance has escalated to new heights, hitting 58.95%, a level last observed in April 2021. This increase is primarily due to Ethereum’s lackluster performance, with the ETHBTC ratio poised to hit its lowest since April 2021, signaling a potential new low.

Despite a shift in focus from Ethereum to other blockchains like Solana, Aptos, or Sui, Ethereum remains central to the stablecoin market and tokenization initiatives. Upcoming technical enhancements aimed at improving transaction efficiency and lowering costs on the Ethereum network are likely to draw further investments into Ethereum-based offerings. Moreover, as regulatory frameworks evolve globally, Ethereum’s more mature regulatory standing could provide it with a competitive advantage over newer blockchain technologies.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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