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Polymarket's U.S. Presidential Election Betting Interest Surges Fourfold to Over $200M Ahead of Vote
Open interest on Polymarket’s 2024 U.S. presidential election market has surged past $200 million, quadrupling since the start of October as election day approaches. Former President Donald Trump currently holds over 66% favorability on the Ethereum-based prediction platform, his highest to date, while Vice President Kamala Harris sits at her lowest odds since joining the ticket. Polymarket’s growing role in the election season has garnered mainstream attention, with the platform’s betting volume reaching $2.1 billion and active traders doubling to 200,000.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $479M Net Inflows, Highest in Two Weeks
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest daily inflows in two weeks on Monday, totaling $479.4 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT, which drew in $315 million. Other notable inflows included Ark and 21Shares' ARKB with $59.8 million, and Fidelity's FBTC with $44.1 million. Total daily trading volume for the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $3 billion, with Bitcoin prices climbing to a high of $71,200. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $1.14 million, driven by $8.4 million exiting Grayscale’s ETHE, partly balanced by inflows into Fidelity’s FETH and BlackRock's ETHA.
Year-to-date, MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) has surged nearly 250%, vastly outperforming Bitcoin’s 60% gain. Acting as a leveraged play on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stock benefits from the company’s significant BTC holdings, with its price moving more sharply in response to Bitcoin's fluctuations. This outperformance underscores the appeal of MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy for traditional equity investors. MicroStrategy holds 252,220 BTC valued at over $17 billion, which it acquired at a cost of approximately $9.9 billion, further amplifying its returns through strategic debt-financed Bitcoin purchases.
Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin surged past $71,500 early today, marking a notable increase in market dynamics. BTC surpassed the $70,000 threshold for the first time since June on Monday, catalyzing a trading volume of $48 billion. There is a consistent rise in open interest, particularly on the CME, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors. The uptrend in funding rates since mid-September suggests a prevailing bullish sentiment toward long positions. Bitcoin futures experienced a significant expansion in open interest, recording the largest single-day increase since June 3. As of Tuesday, open interest escalated to over 20,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.5 billion, culminating nearly 600,000 BTC, or $42.6 billion in total.
Dogecoin is also capturing heightened market attention, with open interest nearing historic highs. This trend is buoyed by increasing confidence in Donald Trump's prospects in the upcoming presidential election, rising by 33% since Sunday. The cryptocurrency is increasingly viewed as linked to the election, amplified by Elon Musk's support for Trump and rumors of Musk leading a proposed "Department of Government Efficiency," humorously acronymized as D.O.G.E.
In the realm of crypto ETFs, Bitcoin attracted significant inflows totaling $479.4 million, predominantly led by BlackRock, while Ethereum registered minor outflows of $1.1 million.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, commented on the market's overly optimistic expectations for substantial Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Although some rate reductions have occurred, Fink argued that the anticipated scale of cuts is not aligned with the broader economic landscape, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures exacerbated by current government policies.
In equity markets, stock futures remained subdued as investors prepared for a pivotal week of corporate earnings, with major tech firms on the calendar. Despite rising Treasury yields limiting equity gains, the focus remains on upcoming earnings disclosures from leading tech giants such as Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple, setting the stage for a critical assessment of market conditions.
Crypto Charts
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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