October 3, 2023

Markets Insights

Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: Nov 1st 2023

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 69%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 31%

The News Room

Grayscale Moves to Convert Its Ethereum Trust to a Spot ETH ETF

Grayscale Investments, in collaboration with NYSE Arca, has submitted a proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to transform its Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into a spot Ethereum ETF. Currently holding almost $5 billion in assets, the Ethereum trust stands as the globe's preeminent Ether investment tool. Grayscale's CEO, Michael Sonnenshein, highlighted the company's dedication to providing investors with regulated and transparent entry points into the crypto world, and emphasized that converting ETHE into an ETF represents a pivotal move in aligning Ethereum with U.S. regulatory standards. This move follows Grayscale's court win against the SEC and the pending request to modify its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. The push for a spot Ether ETF approval is on the rise, with Invesco/Galaxy Digital being one of the latest contenders.

GSR Receives In-Principle Approval for Singapore Payment Institution License

Crypto market maker GSR has received in-principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for a Major Payment Institution license. This approval will enable GSR to further establish its presence in Singapore and utilize the region as a base to invest in and promote the adoption of web3 technology. As the firm meets the MAS's stringent requirements, it is on its path to obtaining a full license in Singapore. GSR Group CEO, Jakob Palmstierna, expressed gratitude to MAS for its constructive regulation that nurtures the growth of the digital asset ecosystem. GSR Group COO, Xin Song, also commended MAS for its clear regulatory framework for digital assets, which has allowed GSR to enhance its client relations locally and maintain its pivotal role as a liquidity provider in the crypto sphere.

US House Bill Proposes Central Registry for Off-Chain Crypto Trades

The Off-Chain Digital Commodity Transaction Reporting Act, introduced to the House by Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), seeks to enhance transparency in digital asset transfers not recorded on public blockchains. This consumer protection bill mandates digital asset trading platforms to record such transfers in a repository registered with the CFTC, amending the Commodity Exchange Act to require reporting of transactions within 24 hours of execution. The move addresses the risks associated with off-chain transactions, which range from private peer-to-peer transfers to fund movements on centralized exchanges.

Amid growing usage of digital asset trading platforms, internal record-keeping inconsistencies across these platforms can expose consumers to fraud and manipulation, as emphasized by Beyer. Post the FTX collapse and subsequent criticisms, numerous exchanges have adopted a "proof-of-reserves" model, utilizing third-party accounting firms for verifying asset-reserve alignments. This legislation, if passed, could provide an additional layer of transparency, ensuring more accurate and reliable internal record-keeping within digital asset trading platforms.

Trading Desk Insights

Stock futures declined on Tuesday, with market participants closely monitoring the ascent of Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%, marking its pinnacle since August 2007. Over the past month, the benchmark yield has witnessed a significant uptick, prompting traders to evaluate the sustainability of these higher rates. Concerns are growing that a stringent monetary stance might steer the economy towards a downturn, resulting in Treasury yields achieving highs not witnessed in over a decade.

Upcoming economic indicators, including September's payroll data set to be released on Friday, as well as the start of the earnings report season next week, are capturing traders' attention. On the economic data front, market watchers anticipate the Job Openings report for August, slated for release on Tuesday morning, with projections circling around 8.8 million job openings.

Looking at Bitcoin, prices have pulled back by 4% since yesterday’s session high. The ETH futures ETF provided some short term bullish momentum for the market but it seems that the positive sentiment is slowly fading away. The peak of price action was attained around 10am EST. At that point, the US Dollar Index was squeezing which put pressure on risk assets like the stock market. This is when Bitcoin started to reverse and follow suit.

The $8 billion SBF criminal trial starts today. The ex-CEO of FTX faces seven criminal counts including wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering which could land him more than 100 years in prison.

In the altcoin space, SOL has gained 43% in 2 weeks while MATIC jumped by 15% in the last week. Rollbit, the crypto casino and trading platform with 1000x leverage, generated revenues of $38M in September and burned more than 1.2% of the circulating supply of its RLB tokens Monday, in line with long-term plans for a “buy and burn” program.

Stock futures declined on Tuesday, with market participants closely monitoring the ascent of Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%, marking its pinnacle since August 2007. Over the past month, the benchmark yield has witnessed a significant uptick, prompting traders to evaluate the sustainability of these higher rates. Concerns are growing that a stringent monetary stance might steer the economy towards a downturn, resulting in Treasury yields achieving highs not witnessed in over a decade.

Upcoming economic indicators, including September's payroll data set to be released on Friday, as well as the start of the earnings report season next week, are capturing traders' attention. On the economic data front, market watchers anticipate the Job Openings report for August, slated for release on Tuesday morning, with projections circling around 8.8 million job openings.

Looking at Bitcoin, prices have pulled back by 4% since yesterday’s session high. The ETH futures ETF provided some short term bullish momentum for the market but it seems that the positive sentiment is slowly fading away. The peak of price action was attained around 10am EST. At that point, the US Dollar Index was squeezing which put pressure on risk assets like the stock market. This is when Bitcoin started to reverse and follow suit.

The $8 billion SBF criminal trial starts today. The ex-CEO of FTX faces seven criminal counts including wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering which could land him more than 100 years in prison.

In the altcoin space, SOL has gained 43% in 2 weeks while MATIC jumped by 15% in the last week. Rollbit, the crypto casino and trading platform with 1000x leverage, generated revenues of $38M in September and burned more than 1.2% of the circulating supply of its RLB tokens Monday, in line with long-term plans for a “buy and burn” program.

Technical Charts

Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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